Скачать или смотреть Chapter 13: Economic fluctuations and aggregate economic evolution

This chapter introduces the theory of economic fluctuations, as embedded in techno-institutional regimes which encompass technological paradigms as well as institutional principles. Patterns of fluctuations are influenced by the co-evolution of regimes, with a concurrent regime change in several dimensions commonly leading to a stronger fluctuation amplitude. Markets and market states are connected via monetary flows and the formation of expectations. A temporal analysis of accounting balances on different levels of aggregation can account for the historicity of economic fluctuations. Expectations, as formed both on an individual as well as collective level, are key determinants of economic fluctuations. Whereas individually, a rational stance can prevail in a social sense, collectively the formation of expectations is strongly shaped by social networks, for example via frequency-dependent effects. Economic fluctuations can be triggered by technological and institutional change as well as by financial sector instability, resulting in typical boom and bust cycles. The institutional separation between monetary and fiscal policy is a specific component of post-war regimes in most advanced economies. Monetary and fiscal policy are performatively shaped by the use of economic statistics and macroeconomic modelling.