127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting | THUNK

Описание к видео 127. Overfitting & Reference Class Forecasting | THUNK

Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with less information!

Links for the Curious

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) -
https://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/d...

"Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice" (Flyvbjerg, 2008) - https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

"The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road & traffic authority" (Liu, Wehbe, & Sisovic, 2010) - https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/...

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