Скачать или смотреть Sir John Curtice: The map that shows Reform's triumph was much more than a protest vote

Sir John Curtice: The map that shows Reform's triumph was much more than a protest vote

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Local elections saw a remarkable triumph for Reform, garnering significant council seats. This was more than just a protest vote, as the party secured control of many councils. While Reform's 31% vote share falls short of a majority, it soundly outperformed the Conservatives (23%), Liberal Democrats (17%), and Labour (14%). This impressive showing, with 677 seats won, highlights a crucial factor: the "first past the post" electoral system. Reform's ability to cluster votes translated into a notable ten-point margin between their vote share and seat count, resulting in their gaining control of ten councils. This outpaces previous results, including Ukip's performance during their peak popularity.

The party performed exceptionally well in several areas, achieving remarkable results such as 72% of seats in Staffordshire on only 41% of the vote. This success suggests that Reform's support is not a fleeting trend. The map, a comprehensive representation of election results, reveals that Reform's support is closely linked to voters who favored Brexit in 2016 and Boris Johnson in 2019. Brexit remains a significant fault line. In areas voting heavily for Leave, Reform's popularity soared, achieving 45% average vote share in such wards. Conversely, in Remain-leaning areas, their support remained lower, at 19%. The party also performed better in areas characterized as "left-behind" Britain, potentially those who experienced less benefit from globalization and university expansion. This is apparent in vote shares varying by educational level and socio-economic status. Importantly, Reform saw similar success in Labour and Conservative wards, suggesting a broader appeal beyond one particular political alignment. This performance is a critical challenge to the two main parties, who must adapt to this shifting electorate to regain support. In conclusion, Reform's victory is a significant political development, indicative of a realignment in British politics.
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