Скачать или смотреть Outer Banks Real Estate | Market Shift Metrics through June 2022 | OBX Real Estate | Market Trends

It's that time once again--time for us to catch up on our latest market shift metrics to be aware of how the Outer Banks market is trending! If you're familiar with my channel, you know that I'm a big data geek and this is my favorite information to share with my viewers!

This is probably a really good time for us to take a quick moment to introduce the concept of LEAD metrics. In past updates, we've relied on LAG metrics, which rely on past data. Tracking lag metrics is important; however, once we gather and analyze this type of data, it's too late to use to make decisions because the data points have already occurred! Lead metrics help us identify where we're going. As we walk through this month's update, I'm going to point out the lead vs. lag metrics to help us draw conclusions about where the market is going.

We'll be looking at the same four basic data pieces as we have in the past: Days on Market, Inventory Levels, Price Adjustments, and Median Sale Price.

Please keep in mind that all data is courtesy of the Outer Banks Association of REALTORS through June 2022.

1. Days on Market:
Let's talk about the lag data first, which will be for SOLD properties.
-Year to Date 2022: the average Days on Market (DOM) is 35, down 42% vs. the same period in 2021. The average DOM for properties sold in both May and June were 23. Therefore, the lag metric indicates stability.

Now, let's look at the lead metric, which is for ACTIVE and UNDER CONTRACT properties.
Active properties as of the date of this video, July 28, had an average DOM of 66, which is up 16% from June.
Under Contract properties had an average DOM of 31, which is up 35% from June. Now, we're seeing that the lead metrics are trending longer.

2. Inventory Levels (ALL residential):
The lag metric shows that YTD inventory is down 11% versus YTD 2021. Again, the lag metric is stable.

However, the lead metric for new listings and active inventory tells a slightly different story. New listings in June 2022 were up 11% versus last June. And here's the kicker: overall active residential inventory June 2022 was up a whopping 25% versus June 2021! This now marks the second month in a row that this has occurred since July 2019. Overall YTD active inventory is still down from last year, but only by 3%--it'll be interesting to see whether we chip away at that further in July.

3. Price Adjustments:
In 2021, 20% of properties experienced a downward price adjustment before they sold. Thus far in 2022, only 18% of properties sold had a downward price adjustment. If we look at this on a monthly basis, we were at 27% in January, then trended downward through May, where only 11% of properties had a price reduction before selling. June, though, went back up to 19% of properties that had a price reduction before selling, so there's a bit of a mixed message when it comes to the lag metrics.

As with the other data points, the lead metrics look at the Active and Under Contract properties, which tells us that in June, 32% of the Under Contract and Active properties underwent a price reduction. As you can see, that lead metric is trending up!

4. Median Sale Price:
In June 2022, the median sale price of SOLD residential single family properties was $581,000--an increase of 3% versus 2021--this is our lag metric. To determine our lead metric, we need to get a sense of what percentage of homes have sold over ask on a monthly basis. In June, 5.8% of homes sold over ask. This represents a downward trend which started in March at 7.9%, followed by 7% in April, and 7.1% in May.

To summarize, our lag metrics still show stability, while our lead metrics, particularly when it comes to days on market and inventory levels, confirm a shifting market.

While the indications, as supported by the data, do not point to big changes in pricing, I do expect that we will experience a more stable environment that will lead to a more balanced buyer/seller relationship. This means a more level playing field for all parties and a little more wiggle room for negotiating prices and repairs for buyers.

Want to keep up with the monthly data as it's released? Be sure to sign up for my monthly market update newsletter: https://www.sandbarliving.com/monthly...

Until next time, if you have any questions or want to talk data with me, feel free to contact me!

Danielle Taylor, REALTOR
Keller Williams Realty OBX
252.489.9185
[email protected]
https://www.sandbarliving.com/