The Ukrainian Naval War (2024) - Armed drones, exports & the battle for the Black Sea

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Russia began its Feb 2022 invasion with a massive force advantage over Ukraine in the Black Sea - but over time we've seen the Russian fleet steadily pushed back by a Ukrainian strategy of sea denial driven by anti-ship missiles, reconnaissance drones and, critically, USVs (AKA naval drones)

Those drones have evolved rapidly, to the point where now we've seen them launching rockets or fighting back against helicopters.

So in this episode, I look at the Black Sea campaign since our 2023 update, and examine the evolution of Ukrainian USVs and the Russian response.


Patreon:
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Reading and Sourcing:

CSIS on Russia's strikes on Ukrainian Grain Infrastructure
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias...

Associated reporting
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

https://kyivindependent.com/romania-c...

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15857....

https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic...

Anti-mine initiative
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-...

FPV carrier
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-ukraini...

Ukraine Arms Sea Baby Drones with Grad rockets
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...

https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-h...

Ukrainian USVs get guns
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...

USVs vs countermeasures
https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...

The scope incident
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/04/nx-s1-...

LRUSV + Hero Loitering Munition
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...

385 Brigade
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...

Reporting on Vice Admiral Wikoff's comments
https://www.voanews.com/a/houthis-und...

Reporting on the collapse of the Grain Initiative
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-r...

Reporting on Ukraine's Grain deliveries
https://www.voanews.com/a/tons-of-ukr...

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/in...

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-ukrai...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/setting...

USMC tests HIMARS from the deck of the USS Anchorage
https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News...

TASS (2021) on the Admiral Nakhimov
https://tass.com/defense/1281679

Neptune production
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/1...

Magura & Sea Baby
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/magur...

https://www.twz.com/new-drone-boat-na...

Caveats & Comments:
See the pinned comment for corrections.

All normal caveats and comments apply. Including, as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon.

Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:15 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:28 — Background
00:06:39 — Battle For The Black Sea
00:14:58 — Russia Changes Tactics
00:24:53 — Drone Evolution
00:35:22 — Counter-adaptation (drones with guns)
00:43:48 — Future Trends
00:50:50 — Wider Implications
01:01:46 — Channel Update