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Projecting extreme risk scenarios to 2050 and visualizing measures we need to implement today to prevent them from materializing.

This video is part of an academic exercise with members, both students and academics, of the Master's Program in Territorial Disaster Risk Management at the Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning of the University of Chile. This was an invitation from the organization of the 8th Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, June 2-6, 2025, to project risk scenarios to 2050. In the case of Chile, the following scenario has been considered:
The metropolitan area of Valparaíso (central Chile) faces significant systemic risk due to several cascading impacts arising from the interconnection of multiple systems. Some of these cascading impacts are population increase due to urban expansion, particularly toward peripheral areas characterized by informal growth, with migration as a strong driver. Moreover, the Valparaíso Region contains the largest number of informal settlements (‘campamentos’) in the country. Climate change further exacerbates these risks, with the region experiencing an average summer temperature increase of 1.9°C and a 17% decrease in precipitation. Additionally, urban planning has been slow and insufficient, land use continues to be a private asset where the market predominance of residential land use coexists with high levels of socio-spatial segregation, the intentionality in the provocation of the fires, and there is a lack of trust from citizens towards official information from public institutions regarding risk management causing an insufficient acknowledgment of risk factors, and a progressive biodiversity loss.