Скачать или смотреть The Tanker Market Could Really Rip Here! DHT Stock Analysis.

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0:00 Intro & Disclaimer
1:15 The maverick life - how I generate a top 1% income level from middle class savings
2:00 DHT stock 1 page overview
3:00 Company info
4:25 Valuation - replacement cost
8:15 Tanker Fleet stats and status
10:05 CEO commentary
11:05 Back of envelope valuation '23
12:27 Torque to spot rates
13:27 Potential 3x upside to analyst estimates
15:05 Management and insider ownership
15:41 Capital Allocation and Shareholder returns
17:26 Price chart
18:18 Verdict and weighting
19:20 How to copy my investments

Tanker stocks look set to really rally here!
In my view, the set up for the tanker sector is the best it’s been in a LONG time, potentially it could be the best ever given that the current fleet appears to be saturated whilst the order book for the near term future for VLCC is at merely 1.9% of the current fleet.
If that wasn’t enough, the supply of vessels appears even more tight when one considers the following facts:

15% of the current fleet is over 15 years old
14% of said fleet is over 20 years old
By year’s end in 2025 there will be circa 90 ships 20 years of age or more.

I cannot pretend to be able to accurately predict the exact number of vessels that will hit the water over the next 2-3 years but I think it’s safe to say that number will not be enough to flood the market with additional supply capacity.

On the demand side, OPEC cuts and geopolitical fissures make it more likely than not in my view that tankers will remain in demand hence TCE rates are likely to remain higher plus the fact trade route changes will likely lead to additional tonne miles being added.

For anyone interested, the below video gives my overview on a VLCC pure play $DHT. I estimate the replacement cost of the company to be roughly $20 per share, albeit that’s calculating for brand new vessel costs. The company has no debt of which to speak, almost 100% leverage to an upside in spot rates whilst their breakeven sits at roughly half of their contracted rates for Q2 ($26.7K Vs $46.3K). Whilst analysts expect an EBITDA of c. $318 mm given that most of their fleet remains tied to spot, if rates were to get to their 5yr ave for October the Co. could do 2-3X that (rough chance, but decent torque) that would be the bull case.
In a base case I explain why I see a realistic case for 40% upside by end of ‘23.
Management own over 15% of the shares outstanding and are committed to a shareholder return program = 100% of net income!

I’m long the stock via straight equity as well as some options plays which you can check out in my ‘stack.

Just my opinion, do not rely.
Let’s see what happens.


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