Syria and the United States After Assad

For over 13 years, the Syrian civil war raged on until Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia over the weekend. By 2018, the Assad regime appeared to have secured its survival, with U.S. Army General Joseph Votel testifying to Congress that it was fair to say Assad had “won” the civil war with the help of Russian and Iranian forces. By 2024, regional Arab governments were poised to normalize relations with Assad.

In a stunning turn of events, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, advanced from its stronghold in Idlib to seize Damascus. Although HTS is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., Jawlani claims to embrace modern governance and reject extremism. Many Syrians are celebrating the end of Assad’s brutal rule, but the future remains uncertain. How will the U.S. engage with the new Syrian leadership? What will happen to the growing captagon drug trade? What are the implications for Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah? What will be the fate of the roughly 900 U.S. troops and their Kurdish partners in northeastern Syria?

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