Скачать или смотреть Weather Why's: Forecasting Tools

Starting off what is forecasting? Well, it's a process of making predictions based on past and present data. It's more like a educated guess.
And while the storm team does not control the weather and neither does any of the meteorologists across the country. So what are some of the tools we use to forecasting? Well, we have an anemometer that collects wind speeds and direction, and we also have a thermometer which collects temperatures. This is just the baseline of how we forecast. This could help us see maybe how much warmer, colder you're going to be.
We look at surface analysis maps made by the weather prediction center that show us where high and low pressure systems are and where cold and warm fronts are and what temperatures are like. All across the region. We also look at atmospheric soundings. These are made when the National Weather Service launches a balloon at the surface. It has a data collector on it.
It rises through the atmosphere, giving us temperatures and dew point so we can look at this and figure out, okay, there's a dry layer in the atmosphere that might keep us a little bit more dry over the next couple of days or maybe the next couple of hours. Some other tools are used to forecast. Obviously, satellite and radar, we can look out to the west of us, the south, the north, the east and say, okay, maybe that system is approaching us over the next couple of hours.
But one of the things that we use most likely to forecast are weather models. You hear about these a lot, but what is a weather model? Well, weather model is a computer algorithm or supercomputer that uses math equations to simulate and predict atmosphere conditions by inputting weather observations, satellite and radar measurements and much, much more. We can create a representation of the earth, and we look at that to see what could happen over the next couple of days.
Every weather model has different variables like time frame, resolution algorithm or equations initial conditions in data assimilation. Some of the big ones that make everyone different is definitely that resolution, which is the number of cells in a forecast model or distance between two cells within the model. The higher the resolution means more of a clear picture, but it doesn't always mean that it's right.
We have time frame 1 to 5 days or 7 to 14 days. Usually the longer a model runs, the lower the resolution. We also have algorithm or the mathematical equation that creates our atmospheric simulation at the end. Again, we use all this weather models can be wrong sometimes. We also have two types of weather models. We have deterministic models, which is a single forecast given with given set of conditions, usually for short and medium time frames.
We also have ensemble models which use multiple forecasts with multiple members with slightly altered conditions, usually used for medium to long term time frames. And that's looking for agreement among the members