The silver market just experienced a complete breakdown. On January 1, 2026, China implemented export restrictions that have fractured the global silver supply chain—and what's happening right now defies every principle of how markets are supposed to function.
The silver market crisis unfolding in 2026 reveals a physical silver shortage that most investors don't see coming. Following the China silver export ban that just took effect, we're witnessing unprecedented price dislocations across global markets. The silver price 2026 trajectory is being shaped by a fundamental disconnect between paper vs physical silver, with a silver supply deficit that has persisted for five consecutive years. Major exchanges like COMEX silver and the London silver market are showing cracks that suggest deeper systemic problems in precious metals trading.
Here's what the data reveals: Silver is trading at $130 per ounce in Tokyo while simultaneously priced at $72 in New York—a $58 arbitrage gap that should be impossible in functioning markets. The paper-to-physical ratio has reached 356:1, meaning 356 claims exist for every actual ounce of silver. Lease rates spiked to 39% in October 2025, the highest in four decades. COMEX registered inventories have dropped 70% since 2020. China approved only 44 companies for silver exports under the new restrictions. Industrial demand continues to surge as solar panels and electric vehicles consume record amounts of silver.
In this investigation, you'll discover how the arbitrage mechanism completely broke down, why banks are paying panic-level interest rates to borrow silver they're supposed to be market makers for, the truth about LBMA vault inventories and multiple ownership of the same bars, how China's strategic control of refined silver gives them dominance over the renewable energy transition, and what the mining strikes despite record prices tell us about resource nationalism.
This isn't just a commodity story—it's about the breakdown of the post-1971 fiat monetary system, and silver is where the cracks are showing first.
SOURCES
1. LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) - Official vault holdings data and historical inventory records
o LBMA published data: https://www.lbma.org.uk/
2. Bloomberg Terminal - Lease rate data, backwardation metrics, and commodity swap rates
o Silver lease rates October 9, 2025: 39% peak
o Current rates (late December 2025): 7-8%
3. China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) - Silver export licensing requirements
o January 1, 2026 implementation of 80-tonne minimum production requirement
o List of 44 approved export companies for 2026-2027
4. Capstone Copper Corporation - Official company announcements
o Mantoverde Union #2 strike announcement (January 2, 2026)
o Operational impact disclosure: 30% capacity
5. Pan American Silver Corporation - Q3 2025 Earnings Report
o Record attributable free cash flow: $251.7 million Q3 2025
o Cash and short-term investments: $910.8 million
6. Reuters/AP - Operation Absolute Resolve coverage
o US military operations in Venezuela (January 3, 2026)
o Casualty reports and operational details
7. Bloomberg Energy/Reuters - Brent Crude pricing data
o Current Brent crude: ~$60-61/barrel
o 2025 performance: -18-20% year-over-year
8. COMEX (CME Group) - Registered silver inventory data
o 70% decline in registered inventories since 2020
o October 2025 price inversions and futures discounts
9. Silver Institute - Annual demand reports and industry data
o Photovoltaic silver demand: 17% of total demand (2024)
o Structural deficit: 148.9 million ounces (2024)
10. Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Commodity Research Reports
o 2026 silver price forecast raised to $65
11. Multiple commodity market analysts including CPM Group, Metals Focus, and Rystad Energy - Industry analysis and supply chain data
12. Financial Times, Wall Street Journal - General market coverage and arbitrage analysis
13. Shanghai Gold Exchange - Premium data and Chinese domestic silver pricing
14. Various mining industry publications - Labor relations and strike coverage in Latin American operations
Disclaimer: The content in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. I am not a licensed investment advisor, broker, or tax professional, and nothing in this video constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any securities, cryptocurrencies, or other investments. Investment and trading carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor, CPA, or attorney who understands your unique circumstances before making any financial decisions. Content may contain opinions or estimates that could change without notice; accuracy is not guaranteed. I am not responsible for your investment outcomes
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