Impediments to Creating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Artificial general intelligence, or superintelligence, is not right around the corner like AI companies want you to believe, and that's because intelligence is really hard.

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic (as well as Ilya Sutskever’s new company) have the explicit goal of creating artificial general intelligence (AGI), and claim to be very close to doing so using technology that doesn’t seem capable of getting us there.

So let's talk about intelligence, both human and artificial.

What is artificial intelligence? What is intelligence? Are we going to be replaced or killed by superintelligence robots? Are we on the precipice of a techno-utopia, or some kind of singularity?

These are the questions I want to answer today, to try to offer a layman’s overview of why we’re far away from AGI and superintelligence. Among other things, I highlight the limitations of current AI systems, including their lack of trustworthiness, reliance on bottom-up machine learning, and inability to provide true reasoning and common sense. I also introduce abductive inference, a rarely discussed type of reasoning.

This video is part of a series about the myths, hype, and ideologies surrounding AI.

Why do smart people want us to think that they’ve solved intelligence when they are smart enough to know they haven’t? Keep that question in mind as we go.

Support Chad:   / cosmicwit  

Ilya Sutskever tweet announcing SSI, Inc. https://x.com/ssi/status/180347282547...
Verge coverage: https://bit.ly/45KtBnD

Ray Kurzweil’s vision of the singularity: https://bit.ly/3zpUUaN
Kurzweil interview:    • Inventor and futurist talks his hopes...  
Elon’s endless promises: https://bit.ly/3RQ4uKy
Elon promises supercut:    • Elon Musk's Broken Promises  

My quantum consciousness video:    • Unraveling the Mysteries of Quantum C...  

James Bridle’s Ways of Being: https://jamesbridle.com/books/ways-of...
Ezra Klein’s comments on AI & capitalism: https://bit.ly/4bw77Ia

How LLMs work:    • How does ChatGPT work? Explained by D...  

Atlantic piece on Markram’s Human Brain Project: https://bit.ly/4cpYdNE
Henry Markram’s TED talk:    • A brain in a supercomputer | Henry Ma...  

Gary Marcus on the limits of AGI: https://bit.ly/45MapGa
More on induction and abduction:    • How to Argue - Induction & Abduction:...  

NYTimes deep dive into AI data harvesting: https://bit.ly/3xFICdK

Sam Altman acknowledging that they’ve reached the limits of LLMs: https://bit.ly/3N7x7Bl
Mira Murati saying the same thing last month: https://bit.ly/3XMWQUS

Google’s embarrassing AI search experience: https://bit.ly/4btNWi6
IBM’s helpful RAG explainer:    • What is Retrieval-Augmented Generatio...  
Gary Marcus’s skepticism around RAG: https://bit.ly/3W3sLPD

AI Explained’s perspective on AGI:    • AI Won't Be AGI, Until It Can At Leas...  
LLMs Can’t Plan paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01817
Paper on using LLMs to tackle abduction: https://is.gd/HX53Cq
ChatGPT is Bullshit paper: https://is.gd/fu0iWW

Philosophize This on nostalgia and pastiche: https://is.gd/oRIK3i

00:00 - Intro
01:38 - What is Intelligence?
02:40 - Overpromising and Underdelivering on AGI
07:21 - Apple Intelligence
07:49 - What Is AGI?
10:17 - AI as Cultural Mirror
11:14 - Defining Intelligence
17:16 - The Brain and the Mind
19:04 - The Mind and Reasoning
23:43 - Current AI Systems
26:34 - What’s Missing
34:58 - Abductive Reasoning
40:56 - Asking the Chatbots
42:40 - Other Challenges
43:36 - AI & Trust
44:28 - Getting to AGI
45:29 - OpenAI Has Acknowledged the Limits of LLMs
46:42 - Conclusion

Please leave a comment with your thoughts, and anything I might have missed or gotten wrong.

I’m still learning how to YouTube and I’m doing it all myself so bear with me…

More about me over here: https://bio.site/cosmicwit

#AGI #intelligence #AI