#Interesting

In this video I discuss the solution to the play problem I posted the day before. Maverick Premier League semi final S4 B24 7H play problem.

The important takeaway is how the odds shift in the light of new information that becomes available from the bidding and the play of the hand. If you could take all of that into account and recompute the odds, even if you do it in an approximate manner, you would go a long way in finding the best solution or the best plan of play.

You could also do quick calculations to get an estimate of the probability. Assuming South had 5+ Clubs, 4 Hearts, some Diamonds, and 1+ Spades, and North had a Heart, a Spade honour, and a Spade that he played on trick 1 and the card that he discarded on the second trump, South will be left with Three vacant spaces, and North, with Nine.

Diamond Jack is likely to be with North in three out of four deals in that case. As for 32 Diamond division, it is about 33% chance or one in three deals. Depending upon how you treat South's double of 5 Clubs, you could come up with sufficient reason/s to go for the Diamond finesse on trick 4, the first round of Diamonds.

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Playlist Reference: IBD159
Event Reference : Maverick Premier League 17AUG24 SF S4 B24 7H play