Скачать или смотреть Beyond the Tariff War: The Great US-India Strategic Pivot of 2025

Don't let the trade war fool you. The US-India relationship is undergoing its most radical transformation in decades. As 2025 unfolds, Washington and New Delhi are navigating a high-stakes balancing act: punishing trade policies on one hand and unprecedented military-tech integration on the other. This analysis dives into why the new 'COMPACT' agreement matters more than the 50% tariffs, how India is shielding its economy through 'Multi-Alignment,' and why the Indo-Pacific's future depends on this 'transactional tension' surviving the year.

The "Whole Explanation" (Summary & Key Pillars)
The article argues that while headlines are dominated by President Trump’s aggressive 25–50% tariffs on Indian exports (linked to India’s Russian oil purchases), the underlying "DNA" of the relationship has moved from Transactional Trade to Strategic Co-dependency.

1. The Tariff "Smokescreen"
The Penalty: The US has imposed heavy tariffs on India, specifically targeting sectors like textiles, gems, and auto parts. A 25% "baseline" and a 25% "penalty" for Russian oil imports have created a massive 50% wall for some exporters.
The Intent: These are not just economic measures but "leveraging tools" to pressure India into diversifying away from Russian energy and defense hardware.

2. The COMPACT Initiative (The Real Game-Changer)
The core of the realignment is the US-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology), launched in early 2025.
Defense & Tech: Moving beyond "Buyer-Seller" to "Co-Developer." It focuses on joint development of sensors, electronic warfare systems, and AI-driven surveillance.
Supply Chain Security: Both nations are aligning to build a "China-minus-one" supply chain, especially in semiconductors and critical minerals.

3. The "Multi-Alignment" Strategy
India refuses to be a formal "treaty ally." Instead, it is practicing Strategic Autonomy.
It is balancing its role in the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia) while simultaneously maintaining ties with the "Global South" and managing a complex relationship with China following the late 2024 disengagement at the border.

4. Energy & Finance Wars
Rupee-Ruble Settlement: As US pressure increases, India has innovated with alternative payment mechanisms to bypass the US Dollar for energy trade.
The "Energy War": The US is offering expanded export capacity (1.5M bpd) to tempt India away from Russian crude, using tariffs as the "stick" and energy security as the "carrot."

Keywords: US-India Relations 2025, Trump-Modi Summit, US-India COMPACT, Geopolitics, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Russian Oil Tariffs, Strategic Autonomy.