Скачать или смотреть Evaluation of the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

Jordan Laser's Masters Defense

Title: Evaluation of the Warn-on-Forecast System with Doppler Lidar and Mobile Radiosondes from TORUS2019

Description: Doppler lidar and mobile radiosonde observations from the Targeted Observations with Radars and UAS of Supercells 2019 (TORUS2019) field project are compared to the environmental guidance NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The aim of WoFS is to provide short-term, storm-scale, probabilistic guidance for severe thunderstorm hazards. As the evolution of convective storms is modulated by the properties of the inflow environment, an accurate prediction of these properties is important for forecasting the evolution of an individual thunderstorm. However, the scarcity of routine observations of the inflow environment of thunderstorms makes evaluation of the quality of WoFS environmental forecasts difficult. Therefore, this study will assess the accuracy of WoFS predictions of the inflow environment of supercells through comparisons to TORUS2019 Doppler lidar and radiosonde observations.