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The Bottleneck Economy

Deliberately slow walking our way to prosperity.

There is a great debate right now about the shape of the coming economic recovery and how that will be anticipated by financial markets.

Is it a V, where we see a strong bounce back to prior heady levels?

Is it a U, where there is a grudging improvement, marked by continuing stagnation now and then a slow uptrend?

Or is it an L, where there has been a permanent shock that has knocked us lower for the foreseeable future?

Notably, none of these talked-about scenarios consider the real disaster: a continuing plunge down from today’s possibly temporary plateau, triggered by the accumulated damage to date.

Almost every forecaster assigns that outcome a near zero probability – though that could be a sign of their minds being trapped in “old normal” reasoning or a mass case of wishful thinking.