Скачать или смотреть Week 51-25: Chinese exports under threat, Steel scrap prices remain tight despite sluggish buying

SHFE Futures Movement
• 📊 Dbar: ⬇️ –1%
• 📊 HR Coil: ⬇️ –1.65%
• 🔥 Cokes: ⬇️ –2.63%
• 🪨 Iron Ore: ⬇️ –1.21%

🔑 Key Commodities
• 🪨 Iron ore (62% Fe): $103 → ⬇️ -$2
• ⚒️ Coking coal: $210 → ⬆️ +$4
• 🔲 Square billet (150 mm): $418 → ⬇️ -$6
• 📦 HRC (3–12 mm): $465 → ⬇️ -$8

China
• 📜 Policy Alert: Export licensing for ~300 steel products starts Jan 1, 2026 → without export license companies won’t be able to export these items — Decided mainly to:🚫 curb low price competition, and to discourage non-vat exports & 📉 restrain exports, 💰 support margins.
• ⚡ Short term effects : Export Rush: Expected in Dec 2025 → 📦 heavy shipments, then ❄️ sharp drop in Jan 2026 for fresh shipments, as not all companies would be able to register for exports that quickly.
• 📉 Crude Steel Output: Jan–Oct = 817.9 Mt → ⬇️ -3.9% YoY (lowest since 2018 🕰️).
• 📊 Futures: Ferrous contracts drifting lower → ⬇️ negative sentiment.
• 🌐 HRC Export Prices:
o 🏭 Large mills & Medium mills DOWN ⬇️ $5–8.
• 🏠 Domestic HRC: SHFE futures –RMB 88/t → DOWN ⬇️, spot –RMB 32/t → DOWN ⬇️ W-o-W.

Vietnam
• 📦 HRC Prices slightly down ⬇️ $6.
• 🗑️ Scrap demand: subdued (adequate inventories).
• 🔩 Rebar: steady & stable.
• 🇯🇵 Japan scrap: steady; Kanto tender JPY 45,688/t FAS → UP ⬆️ JPY 728 MoM.

Turkey
• 🚢 Import scrap: HMS $369/t CFR → UP ⬆️ $1; shredded $389/t CFR ex USA → UP ⬆️ $1.
• 💤 Market activity: limited; exporters firm due to holidays 🎄, tight supply & freight 🚚.
• 🔩 Rebar (domestic): $560–590/t EXW → Slightly down
• 🔩 Rebar (export): $565–575/t FOB → ⬇️ slightly down W-o-W.
• 📈 Exports: 3.5 Mt Jan–Oct 2025 → UP ⬆️ 20% Y-o-Y.

🌍 CIS / Iran / Russia
• Iran billet (130–150 mm): $408/t FOB → steady (unchanged).
• Russia (Black Sea FOB): $440–450/t → steady (unchanged); limited acceptance at $452/t.

Europe
• Poland wire rod: prices UP ⬆️ early Dec (CBAM uncertainty ⚠️), demand eased later.
• Benelux scrap: stable mid Dec.
o Ex Netherlands HMS 1&2 (80:20): $362.5/t CFR Turkey → UP ⬆️ $2.5 WoW.

United States
• ♻️ Scrap prices UP ⬆️ in Dec (export demand + tight winter supply ❄️).
o Midwest shredded: $380–400/lt → UP ⬆️ $20.
o Busheling: $390–405/lt → UP ⬆️ $10–15
o Turkish imports: HMS 1&2 (80:20): $369/t CFR → UP ⬆️ $4.

📉 Steel imports DOWN ⬇️ sharply in Sept:
o Total: 1.56m st → DOWN ⬇️ 16.7% MoM.
o Semi finished: 375,874 st → DOWN ⬇️ 19%.
o Finished: 1.2m st → DOWN ⬇️ 15.9%.
o Finished share: ~14% (vs 16% Aug).

Bangladesh
• Scrap sentiment weak 😔 → DOWN ⬇️ demand (election uncertainty 🗳️, LC processing issues 💸).

India
• 💱 Currency weak → DOWN ⬇️.
• 🌱 CCUS Roadmap announced → UP ⬆️ climate action, but 🚧 challenges remain.

Pakistan
• 💵 IMF released $1.2B → UP ⬆️ SBP reserves.
• 🚚 Severe transport strike → DOWN ⬇️ cashflow.
• 🔮 Post resolution: rebar demand expected to rise → UP ⬆️.
• ♻️ Scrap prices: firm & stable despite liquidity constraints 💸.
o Offers: $355–357/t CFR.
o Bookings: shredded scrap Europe/UK $353–355/t CFR Port Qasim.
• 🌐 Middle East: Market stable 😌; sellers under no pressure, buyers struggling for availability. Limited offers for Jan shipments 📦.