Скачать или смотреть China’s military engagement in the MENA region: the limit of China’s influence?

Speaker
Helena Legarda, Senior Analyst, MERICS

Yahia Zoubir, Professor of International Relations and International

Management, and Director of Research in Geopolitics at KEDGE Business School

Moderator
Dario Cristiani, IAI/GMF Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund/Istituto Affari Internazionali

China’s presence in the Middle East has broadened and deepened over the last decade. Beijing’s importance to the region will likely continue to rise, with commercial and investment ties to the region growing within the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Yet, notwithstanding its increasing centrality to the region’s economic affairs and its intensifying diplomatic presence, Beijing hesitates to involve itself in the regional security domain, avoiding a role in the region’s conflicts. At present, Chinese MENA’s strategy has been characterized by a ‘zero-enemy’ approach with all parties, focused on keeping friendly ties with all sides. Yet, with the expansion of its interests in the area, it could be challenging for China to maintain a non-involvement policy and keeping its focus mainly on economic rather than security ties could marginalize its role in the region.

While China’s role in the region is increasing, the United States, the leading security provider in the area, is seeking to adopt a lower profile, raising concerns about a possible withdrawal from the region. This could undermine China’s economic interests and push it to further engage in the region. Will China seize the opportunity to strengthen its military presence and replace U.S. security architecture? Is China avoiding an active role in the MENA’s security sphere due to a lack of political will or due to military inadequacy? What could be the consequences of a stronger Chinese military presence in the region?