Скачать или смотреть Real Talk Economics - August 2025 - Live with Markus Kuger

The August 2025 edition of Real Talk Economics with Markus Kuger, Chief Economic Advisor at Baker Ing, breaks down the signals credit and collections teams can’t afford to miss.

Key topics this month:

US consumer confidence rises for the first time in 6 months — survey bias still shaping the numbers

Composite PMIs strengthen in the US and Eurozone; Global Manufacturing PMI slips below 50

US effective tariff rate drops from April’s 24% peak to ~17% — still far above last year’s 2–3%

England & Wales insolvencies fall 16% y/y in June, but H1 remains flat

IMF lifts global growth forecast to 3.0% and UK to 1.2%; energy prices now forecast to drop ~7% in 2025

Inflation divergence: Eurozone on target, UK at highest since Jan 2024, US edging higher

Interest rates easing into H2 from elevated levels; UK banks signal modest credit supply improvement

Allianz Trade projects +6% global insolvencies in 2025 and +3% in 2026

Why it matters for AR leaders:
This month’s improvements are real — but measured against a weak base. Tariff changes, sector-specific risk, and elevated insolvency levels mean credit exposure strategies still need discipline and proactive adjustment before Q3 peaks.

Topics covered in this session:
Macroeconomic conditions — US dollar trends, equity market recovery after April’s tariff shock
Consumer confidence — US political bias effect, EU decline, UK stagnation
Business confidence — Composite PMI trends in US, Eurozone, and UK; global manufacturing below 50
Inflation update — UK highest since January 2024, Eurozone on target, US creeping upward
Interest rates — Cuts expected in H2, UK credit supply outlook improves slightly
Labour market — EU unemployment at record low, job vacancies falling, graduate employment challenges
Geopolitical risk — Trade and economic policy uncertainty easing from April highs
Logistics — Container shipping costs normalise, residual supply chain issues remain
Credit risk — Insolvency trends in UK, EU, and global forecast (+6% in 2025, +3% in 2026)
Payment performance — Q1 deterioration, UK vs European averages, France’s persistent delays
IMF World Economic Outlook — Upward revisions to global, US, China, UK, and Eurozone growth forecasts
Tariffs — US effective rate down from April’s 24% peak to ~17%, still far above early-2025 levels
Financial conditions — Lending environment, government debt, and yield curve pressures
Investment climate — Declines across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies
Key takeaways — Improvements vs April, risks still elevated, operational implications for credit teams
Audience Q&A — The real impact of tariffs on the US economy

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