The biggest mistake blackjack card counters make

Try it yourself at https://blackjackcalculation.com/kell... -- What is the biggest mistake that blackjack card counters make, causing the most failures and losses when they try to win long-term in the casino?

o Forgetting Basic Strategy plays?

o Losing track of the running count?

o Not varying bets enough to win?

o Varying bets too much and getting barred?

All of these things happen, but I think the biggest mistake by far is over-betting when the count goes positive! Bad losing streaks definitely happen, even on heavily positive counts, and you cannot avoid it. If your bankroll is too small to support your bet size, you will lose your whole bankroll and be forced to quit.

So how big a bet is too much? The Kelly Criterion says that the optimum bet size is the percentage of your bankroll equal to your player advantage. If you have a 2% advantage, you should bet 2% of your bankroll to get the best possible long-term bankroll growth.

If you bet twice the Kelly amount, your losses in losing streaks cancel your winning bets in the long run. If you bet more than twice the Kelly amount, you'll eventually drive your bankroll to zero.

In this video, I use an spreadsheet to demonstrate what happens when you bet 1/4, 1X, 2X, and 4X of the Kelly amount on a coin-flip game with a 2% player advantage for 1,000 bets in sequence. The results might surprise you.

Related videos:

Kelly Criterion: Huge Bankroll Needed for Blackjack Card Counting
   • Kelly Criterion: Bankroll Size for Bl...  

Spreadsheet shows running/true counts & advantage as cards are dealt
   • Web-based spreadsheet shows blackjack...  

Acutal Real-Life Blackjack Card Counting Strategy Results
   • Acutal Real-Life Blackjack Card Count...  


Related websites:
Main site
https://blackjackcalculation.com

Running/true counts & advantage as cards are dealt
https://blackjackcalculation.com/true...

Kelly Criterion Simulation, Optimum Bet Size for Bankroll Growth
(try the simulation yourself)
http://blackjackcalculation.com/kelly...