AJPH 11/24: The Critical Role of Excess Mortality in Shaping Public Health Decisions

Alfredo Morabia and Prof. Vickie Mays (UCLA) from AJPH interview Profs Neil Pearce (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), Andrew C. Stokes (Boston University School of Public Health), and Jan P Vandenbroucke (Leiden University Medical Center, Dept. Clinical Epidemiology) in a compelling discussion about excess mortality and its significance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Why might excess mortality be a more accurate measure than COVID-19-specific mortality? What is the theoretical foundation for using excess mortality as an evaluative tool? How can excess mortality help determine whether countries or regions performed ‘equally well’ during the pandemic?

Can it provide insights into what strategies worked—or didn’t—during the crisis? Despite delays in obtaining mortality data, how can excess mortality be used to track health emergencies in real time?

Finally, what key recommendations should guide those using excess mortality as an outcome measure? Join us for this insightful conversation to better understand the critical role of excess mortality in shaping public health decisions and pandemic evaluations.

00:00 Introduction
01:12 Defining Key Terms: Comorbidity and Random Sampling
04:45 Understanding Case-Control Studies
07:30 What are Absolute and Relative Excess Measures?
10:15 The Concept of Baseline Life Expectancy
12:50 Panel Discussion Introduction
14:20 Historical Use of Excess Mortality
17:35 Environmental Factors and Excess Mortality
20:10 Global Perspectives on Excess Mortality
22:45 Belgium vs. Netherlands: Data Differences in COVID Mortality
26:00 Importance of Random Sampling in Pandemics
29:15 Excess Mortality vs. COVID-Specific Mortality
32:50 Challenges of International Data Standardization
35:45 Cultural Behaviors and Public Health Policies
38:20 Lessons for Epidemiologists
41:00 Ethical Obligations of Researchers
43:25 Recommendations for Future Research
46:00 Concluding Remarks: Preparing for Future Pandemics
48:15 Outro and Thank You