Скачать или смотреть Tesla's 40% Crash - Why EV Demand Is Collapsing (And Taking Stock Down)

Tesla stock crashed 40% from peak. Down from $420 to $250. Over $1 trillion in market value evaporated. This isn't temporary, this is structural collapse of EV growth narrative.

Q4 2024 deliveries fell 6% year-over-year, first annual decline in Tesla history. Total 2024: 1.79M vs 1.8M in 2023, negative growth. Global EV sales growth slowed to 8% in 2024, down from 43% in 2022. Exponential growth curve broke.

China biggest problem: Tesla deliveries fell 27% Q4 2024. BYD delivered 3 million vehicles in 2024, more than Tesla globally. BYD's Seal costs $25K vs Tesla Model 3 at $40K, same range, half the price. Tesla's global EV market share declined from 20% in 2020 to under 12% in 2024.

Tesla's P/E ratio is 70, auto industry average is 8. Market cap $700 billion, more than Toyota, VW, and GM combined who produce 30 million vehicles annually versus Tesla's under 2 million. Would need to increase earnings 9x to justify valuation.

Elon Musk bought Twitter October 2022, obsessed with running X, posting hundreds of tweets daily, making controversial political statements. Tesla brand favorability among Democrats collapsed from 70% to 30%. Musk also runs SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Company, involved in Trump administration. No human can effectively run 5 companies. Tesla suffering from lack of focus.

EV demand slowing: early adopters saturated, mainstream hesitant due to higher prices, charging infrastructure inadequate, battery tech improvements slower than hoped, used EV market weak, economic conditions tightening. Creates demand ceiling.

Best case: demand stabilizes, stock trades sideways. Moderate case most likely: deliveries grow 5%, margins compress, earnings flat, stock drifts lower, market cap drops to $400-500 billion, another 30-50% downside. Worst case: Chinese competitors enter US, market share collapses, stock crashes to $100-200 billion, 60-70% downside.

Realistic valuation based on current financials: $300-400 billion market cap, implying 30-50% downside. If Tesla is just car company trading at industry 8-10x earnings, should be valued at $200 billion or less, 60-70% below current price.

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Educational purposes only, not financial or investment advice.

Will Tesla recover or is this permanent decline? Can any EV succeed if overall demand slowing? Is Musk's distraction the problem? Comment below.

TERMINAL ECONOMICS