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The Breaking Point: COMEX Has 92M Ounces But Needs 700M To Cover Contracts

December 23, 2025 COMEX registered silver is sitting in the ~128–130 million oz range on the latest CME daily depository stats, while paper exposure stays massive.

CME Group
The headline problem: even if you assume “only ~92M oz is effectively deliverable,” the paper market still represents hundreds of millions of ounces in potential claims.

In this 26-minute breakdown, I cover:
Latest COMEX registered silver (CME depository stats): ~128.6M oz (Report Date: Dec 22, 2025)

CME Group
Why “registered” ≠ “available”: Eligible vs Registered (and why the conversion incentive matters)
Open interest reality: COMEX silver futures open interest around 165,805 contracts
YCharts
Paper ounces implied: 165,805 contracts × 5,000 oz/contract ≈ 829M oz of paper exposure
Barchart.com
What “700M oz needed to cover contracts” actually means (≈ 140,000 contracts worth of exposure)
Barchart.com

Leverage ratio: roughly ~6:1 paper-to-registered even using CME registered totals higher if you use stricter “effective deliverable” estimates
CME Group
Why delivery stress clusters around active contract cycles (Mar/May/Jul/Sep/Dec)
The real “breaking point” scenario: how exchanges historically respond when delivery demand spikes (margins, rules, cash-settlement pressure)

Why this matters RIGHT NOW
Registered stocks are finite (and the daily report is the scoreboard).
CME Group
Eligible metal isn’t guaranteed supply it’s just metal that could be registered if owners choose.
CME Group

Paper claims scale fast because the standard COMEX contract represents 5,000 oz.
Barchart.com
The 3 Thresholds (framework)
THRESHOLD 1 — PRESSURE ZONE: premiums rise, sourcing tightens, “paper vs physical” spread widens.
THRESHOLD 2 — CRISIS ZONE: delivery delays expand, rule changes become likely, confidence fractures.
THRESHOLD 3 — BREAKING POINT: forced cash settlement / emergency measures, paper pricing loses authority.

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals.

📚 DATA SOURCES (used in this video):
CME Group — Silver Stocks (Daily Depository Statistics)
CME / COMEX definitions: Eligible vs Registered
Open interest (contracts outstanding): COMEX Silver Futures OI
YCharts
Contract sizing: 5,000 oz per SI contract
Barchart.com

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