Скачать или смотреть Why China's $1.2 Trillion Surplus Hasn't Moved the Yuan | The Chinese Yuan Paradox Explained (2026)

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A $1.2 trillion trade surplus should send a currency soaring. But China's yuan barely moved. A new January 2026 report from J.P. Morgan explains exactly why—and the answer involves a $930 billion dollar "hoard" that most people don't know exists.

In this deep dive, we break down the mechanics behind the "Chinese Yuan Paradox." We analyze why exporters are holding record amounts of US Dollars, how the PBOC is managing a delicate "gradual appreciation," and why bond traders got burned expecting rate cuts.

We interpret the J.P. Morgan China Local Markets report so you don't have to read the 40-page PDF.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 The $1.2 Trillion Paradox: Why the currency didn't spike
01:00 The "Structural Bullish Risk" explained
03:40 The December Record: $100 Billion sell-off in one month
05:38 The Hidden Reservoir: The $930 Billion corporate hoard
06:34 PBOC Strategy: How the daily fixing mechanism works
08:20 The REER Edge: How inflation differentials helped China
09:57 The Bond Market Trap: Targeted easing vs. rate cuts
12:27 Final Verdict: The "Structural Bullish Risk" for 2026 Forecast & The "Dam" Analogy

KEY INSIGHTS:
• The Paradox: China ran a surplus equal to Indonesia's GDP, yet the CNY remained stable.
• The Hoard: J.P. Morgan estimates up to $930 billion in excess dollar savings sitting in corporate accounts.
• The December Shift: Exporters sold a record $100B USD in one month—a signal that the "dam" might be leaking.
• The Strategy: The PBOC is prioritizing stability over strength, using a "gradual appreciation" strategy to protect exports while managing capital flows.

SOURCE:
J.P. Morgan China Local Markets Team
Report: "The Chinese Yuan Paradox: Structural Bullish Risk Assessment"
Date: January 17, 2026

⚠️ Disclaimer & Fair Use: This video is a commentary and news report on publicly available market research. All data discussed is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The use of names, trademarks, and data is protected under the Fair Use doctrine (17 U.S.C. § 107) for purposes of criticism, comment, and news reporting.

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