Скачать или смотреть Are we on the brink of war? | Isabel Hilton, Malcolm Rifkind and Bill Hayton

Malcolm Rifkind, Isabel Hilton and Bill Hayton debate the viability, and probability, of a major US-China conflict over Taiwan.

Why does China want Taiwan? What would happen in the event of an invasion?

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Communist China has always claimed Taiwan as part of the mainland and denied its right to exist. Until recently Taiwan was safe with US support and a militarily-weak China. But in recent years the statements from China have become increasingly threatening and the military build-up relentless. In response, it is unclear what should be done. Twenty years ago the US navy was more than twice that of China. Today, China has surpassed the number of US naval vessels and is adding ships at an unprecedented rate. Raising the tension further, in late 2024, unannounced, China carried out its largest naval exercise yet at the edge of Taiwan's waters. Shortly afterwards Xi declared: "No one can stop the reunification" of China and Taiwan.

Should the US avoid conflict with China at all costs, and allow the invasion of Taiwan? Or must the US and the West respond to China's military build-up? Or, in the context of Trump's America, is it more likely that America and China will agree on spheres of influence, and divide up the world between the new empires of the 21st century?

#taiwan #china #usa #geopolitics

00:00 Introduction
00:18 What are the practicalities of China invading Taiwan, and of the US stopping an invasion?
00:53 Bill Hayton: Potential scenarios
02:57 Malcolm Rifkind: South China Sea trade interests
04:23 Blockade tactics
06:20 Isobel Hilton: Why a full scale invasion is unlikely
07:50 FONOPs: Freedom of Navigation Operations
09:50 Isobel Hilton: 400-year historical context
13:43 Isobel Hilton: Kinmen and Matsu
14:42 Would a China-US conflict in Taiwan be the tripwire for a Third World War?


Malcolm Rifkind is a renowned British politician who served in the cabinets of both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, most famously in the roles of Foreign and Defense Secretary. Isabel Hilton is a renowned international relations expert, journalist and broadcaster. She is the founder of Dialogue Earth, formerly China Dialogue (中外对话). Bill Hayton is a distinguished former BBC journalist and Chatham House associate fellow. He is the author of four books on Asia. Hosted by Mary Ann Sieghart.

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