Wagner's Mutiny - what it means for Putin's Russia (and Coups 101)

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The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.

Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.

In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.

Patreon:
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Caveats & Comments:

As noted in the video - I don't know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar

All other normal caveats (from information quality to 'this is not financial advice' to non-reliance apply as always

Relevant reading & sources:

Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne - Journal of Peace Research - Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset
http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-th...

Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS)
https://tass.com/russia/1637475

Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/0...

Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

Reporting on Surovikin
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6...

Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/27/...

Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS
https://www.popularmechanics.com/mili...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...

On the response to Wagner troops
  / 1674163772364128258  

Putin blasts Wagner as traitors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk
https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/what-...

Reporting on Prigozhin speaking
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ru...

Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)
  / 1673416906299043846  

The many Coup accusations of Belarus

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashe...

Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don
  / 1672424964086169600  

Rumour of early warning of the plot
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/wo...

Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms
  / 1673113539509092356v  

NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6...

Included Anatol Lieven article
https://www.theguardian.com/commentis...

As normal - my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content

Flight tracker of Putin's jet
  / 1  

Prigozhin on defending Belgorod
https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/03/w....

Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukrain...

I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here

A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Wagner Mutiny
00:01:56 — What Am I Talking About
00:04:16 — Rumours & Speculation
00:04:58 — Coups 101
00:10:39 — Rules For A Good One
00:17:11 — The Russian Attempt
00:31:02 — The Days After
00:33:03 — Could It Have Worked
00:36:38 — Conspiracy Theories
00:39:47 — Key Observations
00:47:20 — The Impact Going Forward?
01:04:57 — Conclusions
01:06:15 — Channel Update