Decisive

We're awful at making decisions. A survey found that 44% of lawyers don't recommend that students become lawyers. 83% of mergers/acquisitions fail to add any real value to the company. Hundreds of thousands of tattoos are removed each year. Young people start relationships that are bad for them, middle-aged people let work interfere with their personal lives, elderly have regrets about not smelling the roses more when they were younger.

We need a better process for making the big decisions.

Our generic process is usually: encounter a choice, analyse our options, make a choice, then live with it.

But at each stage of the process, there is a villain: narrow frame, confirmation bias, short-term emotion, overconfidence.

In order to overcome these villains, we need to "WRAP" our decisions: Widen our options, Reality-test our assumptions, Attain distance before deciding, Prepare to be wrong.



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