Скачать или смотреть Comprehensive Equity Analysis: Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S (AOJ-B.CO)

Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S (AOJ) is a century-old, family-controlled Danish wholesaler of technical installation materials. The company holds a strong market position in its home market of Denmark, which is supplemented by a growing presence in Sweden and Norway. The investment case hinges on the company's ability to leverage its digital leadership and scale to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment while executing a disciplined expansion strategy.
AOJ's strategy is built on three pillars: digitalization, acquisitive geographic expansion, and growing its direct-to-consumer (B2C) channel. This strategy aims to build a resilient, omnichannel business model that is less dependent on the cyclicality of new construction by focusing on the more stable renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) market. A key innovation exemplifying this strategy is the AO365 concept, which provides professional customers with 24/7 unmanned access to physical stores.
The company experienced robust growth and record profitability in the post-pandemic period of 2021-2022 but has since faced significant margin pressure due to intense price competition and a slowdown in key markets, particularly for heat pumps. Despite a revenue decline in 2023 and modest growth in 2024, the company has maintained profitability and a strong commitment to shareholder returns via dividends. Performance in the first half of 2025 shows a strong rebound in revenue growth, driven by both organic gains and recent acquisitions, though margin pressure persists.
The primary opportunities for AOJ lie in gaining market share through its superior digital and logistical platform, successfully integrating recent acquisitions in Sweden and Norway to build a significant Nordic footprint, and capturing long-term tailwinds from the green energy transition and infrastructure modernization.
The most significant risks include a prolonged weakness in the Nordic construction market, sustained and intense price-based competition further eroding margins, execution risk associated with integrating multiple new acquisitions, and increased customer credit risk in a volatile economic climate.
AOJ currently trades at valuation multiples that are below its historical averages and appear to reflect the recent cyclical downturn in earnings. The key question for investors is whether the current valuation adequately discounts the near-term headwinds or underestimates the long-term value creation potential of its strategic initiatives.