Election polling: why is it so difficult?

Election polling is tricky. While pollsters' successes can fill headlines, if they get it wrong, their failures do too. Is there a better way to predict elections?

00:00 - What’s the best way to predict elections?
00:48 - How were elections predicted in the past?
02:36 - How do modern day polls work?
04:32 - Why polls miss the mark
07:14 - How does statistical modelling work?
08:30 - Our French election model

See the data behind The Economist's French election model: https://github.com/TheEconomist/2022-...

Find out french election coverage here: https://econ.st/3D70EDW

Will Emmanuel Macron win a second term? https://econ.st/36M2DBK

“Covid, heating bills, crime—that’s what people will be voting on”—our French-election series begins. Listen here: https://econ.st/36Jzozx

How we forecast the French election: https://econ.st/356SLSq

The Economist’s election modelling should cheer Emmanuel Macron: https://econ.st/3iwgeQ7

America’s battle over election laws: https://econ.st/3JIi4JG

In France’s election young people are all over the map: https://econ.st/3IG9euy