Total Non-Farm Payroll - Recession Warning?

As the year begins to draw to a close, we are starting to think about 2025. As always, we look at the data and see if the data is telling us anything.

Today, we take a brief look at the total non-farm payroll. Specifically, we look at how this data has changed over a rolling 12-month period of time. If we add a 10-year average to the data, we can see that when the rate-of-change dips below the 10-year average, it is usually followed by a recession sometime thereafter.

So where are we today?

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