Brazil Elections 2022: A Discussion on the State and Stakes of the Race

This October, Brazilians will head to the polls in what many expect will be the country’s most consequential presidential election in decades. The race between current President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva has tightened of late. Much of Bolsonaro’s first term has been consumed by the government’s approach to dealing with COVID-19 as Brazil has been one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, but Bolsonaro’s most recent attacks on the country’s electoral system are now dominating headlines and causing growing alarm.

As the election looms closer, the stakes for Brazil’s democracy, as well as its economic trajectory, are increasingly high. What is the current state of the race? What are the key issues and indicators to watch for in the coming months? How would Bolsonaro respond to a defeat and what would be his options in such a scenario? And what would be the policy priorities under a new Lula or Bolsonaro government?