Why earnings will make or break markets in 2025

Pallas Capital Advisors CIO Gaurav Mallik joins the Morning Brief to discuss his outlook for stock markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) in 2025. Mallik believes the current key question for markets is, "What has already gotten priced in?" After the presidential election, he notes there was significant bullishness driving markets higher. However, his focus has shifted: "It's a lot about what are the actual earnings going to look like for firms?" Mallik suggests that unless earnings grow into their current high valuations, the Trump-fueled rally is due for a "sort of pause." With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading at a 22-23 multiple, Mallik emphasizes that the market "needs to have earnings built into that multiple." He forecasts a consensus earnings growth of 11-12% and anticipates a broadening of the rally, with small caps and financials poised to benefit.
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