Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20? Something Doesn't Add Up

Superintelligence when? This question is more urgent than ever as we hear competing timelines from Inflection AI, OpenAI and the leaders at the Center for AI Safety. This video not only covers the what was said, it offers some data on what superintelligence is projected to be capable of.

I discuss things that can hasten those timelines (see the new Netflix doc, Top 1% for Creativity and the AI Natural Selection paper) or slow it down (ft. Yuval Noah Hariri, the new Jailbroken paper, and more). And I end on some reflections of what it might mean to interact with a superintelligence (ft Douglas Hofstadter).

Introducing Superalignment: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-s...
Odds of Success: https://twitter.com/janleike/with_rep...
Mustafa Suleyman (Inflection AI) Interview:    • ‘We need AI to be held accountable,’ ...  
Inflection Supercomputer: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sta...
GPT 2030: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqN...
Counterpoint:   / 1666765447054647297  
Creativity Test: https://www.umt.edu/news/2023/07/0705...
MMLU: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03300.pdf
Boston Globe CAI: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/0...
Yuval Noah Hariri Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technolog...
Jailbroken Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02483.pdf
Suleyman Hallucination Tweet: https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/st...
Killer Robots:    • UNKNOWN: Killer Robots | Official Tra...  
Automated Apple-picking:   / 1677828971214282752  
50 year Mortgages: https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-2...
Heypi: https://heypi.com/talk
Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.16200.pdf#....
Gödel, Escher, Bach author Doug Hofstadter on the state of AI today:    • Gödel, Escher, Bach author Doug Hofst...  

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