Total xG Explained: The Most Misunderstood Statistic in Football | Part 1

Total xG is perhaps the most misinterpreted statistic in modern-day sports. In this video, I delve into the mathematical principles behind the expected goals model. Stats are great at trying to uncover patterns in the game but these tools are only as good as our ability to understand and implement them. In the intro I lay out 3 things to cover but editing took longer than I expected so this is the first of a three-part series uncovering the tricky details behind xG. Why is it so widespread if it’s not accurate? Find out in Part 2.

In the intro, I mention 170 games but wrote 169. This is because the Bournemouth v Luton game has been suspended. Thoughts go out to Tom Lockyer, his family, and everyone involved.

Thank you for all the support!