Скачать или смотреть Jist Exit Poll: Rajasthan And Madhya Pradesh Assemblies Election 2023 | Madhya Pradesh Part 1

Battlegrounds Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan - 2023
Billed as the big semi-final before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, the winter test of five state assemblies is expected to set a narrative
Out of the five, the Congress and the BJP are pitted in a bipolar contest in three states- Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh
Jist News along with The Ideas Factory Research and News Arena India carried out several rounds of ground surveys in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, to ascertain what’s driving the voter preferences and which political outfit or narrative they are endorsing.
The final outcome of the Jist Exit Poll-2023 can be summarised in two short sentences.
In the case of MP, the contest remains tight with the Congress enjoying a 2018 assembly poll-like slight edge. However, the final verdict can swing in any direction
In Rajasthan, the voters seem to have opted to keep the state’s revolving door tradition alive with infighting in the Congress and anti-incumbency against the government dwarfing the political propulsion provided by Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s welfare schemes
In both states, despite a negative swell against their parties the two incumbent Chief Ministers - Shivraj Singh Chauhan in MP and Ashok Gehlot remain top choices for the voters as Chief Ministerial picks
PM Narendra Modi’s ratings continue to remain very high in both states which the BJP had virtually swept in 2019 Lok Sabha polls despite setbacks in both state assemblies.

Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll
Jist-TIF-NAI SURVEY
PROJECTIONS FOR MP’s 230 seats
A) In Madhya Pradesh the Congress and the BJP are likely to poll almost the same percentage of votes. The two parties are projected to poll 42-43.50% of the total votes cast.
B) In Madhya Pradesh despite almost similar vote shares the Congress seems to be marginally ahead of the BJP in terms of seats won.
Due to its better “vote to seat” conversion, the Congress is expected to win 107-124 seats
In comparison, the BJP seat share is projected to be between the 102-119 band.
C) Others in Madhya Pradesh are expected to win 0-5 seats
D) The standout feature of the elections was a complete lack of an electoral wave and the fatigue factor working against the BJP government headed by Shivraj Singh Chauhan
The table below provides the projection for the various regions in Madhya Pradesh, the overall vote share and the seat projection.

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