U.S. inflation remains near 3% while the Fed continues cutting rates, pushing gold higher alongside rising consumer prices. This policy shift is set to hit the dollar hard, given today’s much larger debt levels. Analysts warn the “endgame” is near—worse for dollar holders than in 1980, but far more rewarding for gold and silver investors, as this time gains are expected to be sustained and even surpassed.
Rafi Farber, known as The End Game Investor, is a financial writer, investor, and precious metals analyst recalls that back in 1980, the Fed fought inflation by targeting monetary aggregates, money supply growth rather than just consumer prices. With debt-to-GDP at only 32%, they could hike rates aggressively, eventually taming inflation and stabilizing the dollar. Today, however, debt-to-GDP is near record highs at around 120%, leaving no room for similar rate hikes. Instead, the Fed is cutting rates into rising consumer prices and a rising gold market. Unlike 1980, this environment signals a much weaker dollar and far stronger prospects for gold and silver, with gains expected to surpass those of the past.
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Rafi Farber points out that in 1980–81, U.S. inflation and gold prices were surging while the Fed raised interest rates aggressively to regain control. After briefly cutting rates, they were forced to hike again up to nearly 15%, when money supply growth ran hotter than expected. Only once inflation consistently declined did the Fed start cutting rates steadily, which helped stabilize the system and prevented the collapse of the fiat dollar.
Unlike 1980, when the Fed had the flexibility to crush inflation with aggressive hikes, today’s debt-heavy environment leaves policymakers with fewer tools. Cutting rates into rising inflation risks undermining the dollar while fueling gold and silver to new heights, suggesting this cycle could deliver far more lasting gains for precious metals. Could today’s debt levels make it impossible for the Fed to repeat the 1980 playbook? How high might gold and silver climb if the dollar continues to weaken under current policies?
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