Скачать или смотреть Iranian Protests from an Oil and Gas Professionals Perspective

Iranian protests are escalating, and the big question is whether Iran is heading toward regime change, or a hard crackdown that locks in the status quo. In this video, I do not pretend to have answers. I lay out competing scenarios and the uncomfortable tradeoffs inside each one, then I ask what you think comes next.

Possible outcomes include: the Ayatollah remains in power and the system absorbs the unrest, the Revolutionary Guard takes control and Iran shifts into a more explicit military style dictatorship, a constitutional republic or democratically elected government takes shape, a constitutional monarchy emerges, or the darkest path, a fractured Iran with competing factions and prolonged violence, Libya style. None of these are clean, none are guaranteed, and the difference between them matters for ordinary Iranians, for the region, and for global markets.

I also zoom out to the geopolitics: what this could mean for Russia and China, and for Iran’s regional proxy network, including the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas. If Iran’s internal balance shifts, everything around it shifts too, including oil supply risk, shipping security, and the broader stability of the Middle East. Drop your take in the comments: which scenario do you think is most likely, and why?

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