Nuclear Modernisation - Rearmament, ageing stockpiles and why Russia's nukes work (probably)

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Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?

The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament.

But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels.

In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.

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Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories:
https://thebulletin.org/#navbar-brand
https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-noteb...
https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-n...
https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-...

RAND - US China military scorecard (featuring counter-force modelling)
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...

NNSA on Plutonium Pit Production
https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/plutonium...

Government Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Production
https://www.gao.gov/blog/over-budget-...

GAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisation
https://www.gao.gov/nuclear-weapons-a...

GAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability”
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-1...

Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57130

CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59365

USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheet
https://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/D...

Mattis and the nuclear sponge
https://www.defensenews.com/space/201...

NNSA warhead activities factsheet
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/fil...

NNSA W76-1 Fact sheet
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/13...

CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh)
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaw...

US 2022 National Defence Strategy
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27...

CRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
https://crsreports.congress.gov/produ...

CRS on Nuclear Triad
https://crsreports.congress.gov/produ...
Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmat
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-t...

First Strike IMDb entry
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2429312/

Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol - How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze
https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-u...

Reporting on production of Pits at Los Alamos
https://time.com/6296743/los-alamos-l...

Report on Sarmat going “on duty”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9...

Wired – on Russian nukes not working
https://www.wired.com/story/nuclear-w...

UK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UK
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/...

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.


Timestamps
00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation
00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation
00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision
00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb
00:21:45 — United States
00:34:54 — Russia
00:54:27 — China
01:02:22 — France
01:07:08 — United Kingdom
01:10:55 — Conclusion
01:11:48 — Channel Update