Скачать или смотреть Recession & Macro-Economic Forecast - January 2024

We have just released the AP Macro-Economic Report for January 2024, covering the economic events from December '23 and early January of ‘24. Listen to learn more about:

New job numbers show unemployment staying down at 3.7%, along with a modest new jobs figure of 216,000. This low unemployment level still fully supports Fed interest rate and money supply tightening policy changes. Small contractions in employment are likely ahead, but tight labor still seems to be entrenched at the moment. Job openings still outnumber the available labor pool by about 1.3X, but are showing signs of declining now.

The fresh basic CPI inflation report came in above what was expected for December, at 3.4%. The Core PCE remained at 3.9%, and “Sticky Inflation” is staying much higher, at 4.58%, giving the Fed ammunition to continue with another interest rate increase in 2024 if they deem it to be necessary.

Equities market risks remain in bubble territory, with the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P500 moving up to test their all time highs set two years ago. Cash had been building - fresh inflation and employment data refueled equity speculation again, in spite of the extended outlook provided by the Fed. We believe recent equity price action still SHOULD NOT yet be interpreted as a “new bull market”, but rather the next phase of a “bull trap”, as it tested and then pushed through highs set back in August, after the FOMC’s most recent report.

The Fed has emphasized over and over again that they will not reverse their course of rate increases and money supply reduction until there is solid evidence that inflation will move into their target zone of 2%. That’s certainly not going to happen for many months, well into 2024, at least.

| Advanced Projections has developed 6 key economic indicators that consistently forewarn of oncoming recessions. As our indicators change from green to yellow to red, our recession probability increases until it reaches a critical warning point. Our indicators and updates also alert members of economic restabilization when a recession is ending. Safeguard your business, savings, and investments with our essential monthly recession reports. |

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[0:00] January 2023
[0:22] AP Highlights & Reviews
[4:40] Current Economic Environment
[9:50] AP Macro-Economic Indicators

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