Скачать или смотреть GDP Miss | 4% Rule Reality | Mortgage Rates Map | Midterm Tailwind | F Fund Signal

This week we break down a softer-than-expected GDP print, why the market seems “numb” to headline risk, and what that could mean for TSP investors. We also dig into the real-world limits of the 4% rule in an inflationary, volatile market, walk through mortgage-rate trends and what they may be signaling next, and share a midterm-election stat that’s hard to ignore. We wrap with the weekly TSP fund direction and why the F Fund may be the key tell for the rest of the year.

Highlights:
GDP came in at 1.4% for Q4 2025 and the market largely shrugged it off
Mortgage rates are easing, but the bigger long-term rate cycle still matters
The 4% rule, inflation, and why big drawdowns can change everything in retirement
Key S&P 500 levels to watch inside the current sideways range (6,800 and 7,000)
Midterm election years. The historical “7 months after” market tendency
Weekly TSP fund direction and why the F Fund may signal what’s next for stocks

Timestamps:
00:08 Welcome + the market feels numb to “crazy weeks”
00:38 GDP miss (1.4%) + headline risk and why markets are shrugging
03:32 What we’re covering this week
03:50 Mortgage rates trend + the bigger long-term rate cycle
13:10 Jobless claims + PCE inflation update
16:40 GDP details, inflation, and the “stagflation-ish” setup
18:10 The 4% rule. What it assumes and why retirement looks different now
21:55 Example math with a $1M TSP balance, withdrawals, and inflation
25:04 Why drawdowns can break the plan (even if markets “recover” later)
26:40 TSP vs IRA considerations (rules, flexibility, and options)
33:30 Practical takeaways for going beyond 4% without taking unnecessary risk
36:35 Market structure. The roadmap and key levels (6,800 / 7,000)
40:45 2026 roadmap and why midterm election years matter
42:10 The midterm election day stat and what it tends to imply
44:45 TSP fund direction + why the F Fund may be the most important to watch
47:20 Wrap-up + how to send questions

Website: https://growmytsp.com

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