Earthquake Prediction: Long-Term

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Correction to what I say at 2 mins 56 seconds: It's the US geological survey, not service. Sorry about that.

Correction to what I say at 4 mins 35 seconds: They USGS has estimated the probability of a major earthquake in the SF bay area by 2043 with 72% (as you see in the figure) and not 75% (as I erroneously say). Sorry about that.

I recently heard a seminar about how earthquakes correlate with the length of the day. Bullshit, I thought. After the seminar I thought it wasn't all that crazy. I then fell into a rabbit hole of papers on earthquake prediction. It's absolutely fascinating! I had no idea that geological processes correlate with so many other events.

In this video we'll talk about long-term and mid-term forecasts, correlations with the length of the day (which again is correlated with the wind), with solar activity, and with the tides. Next week we'll talk about short-term forecasts.

In hindsight I should have stressed more in this video that while everything I talk about has been published in peer reviewed journals, there is no consensus in the community about whether these claims are correct. Those are all very recent developments. So please don't think this is settled science, it's very much work in progress.

The report I mention at the very beginning is here: https://www.undrr.org/publication/eco...

The USGS map for San Francisco which I show at 4 mins 20 seconds is here: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs...

The paper from Bendick and Bilham about the periodicity in earthquake recurrences which I mention at 5 mins 20 seconds is here:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c...

The paper about solar activity which I mention at 6 minutes 15 seconds is this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4159...

And the two other papers about solar activity which I mention later are those:
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/22/11/...
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10...

The paper about earthquakes and tides which I show at 8 minutes and 10 seconds is this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2796
(and, as you see on the screenshot, it's in Nature Geoscience, not in Nature, sorry about that)

The 1991 Hide & Dickey paper about the correlation of the southern oscillation with the length of the day that I mention at 10 mins 5 seconds is here:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...

And finally the Guardian article I mention at 11 mins 30 seconds is this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/201...

Many thanks to Jordi Busqué for helping with this video http://jordibusque.com/

0:00 Intro
1:03 Why do earthquakes happen?
3:36 The Gutenberg-Richter law
6:00 Solar activity
7:42 Tides
9:04 The length of the day depends on the wind
10:52 Earthquakes correlate with the length of the day
13:10 Sponsor message

#science #earthquakes #geophysics