Скачать или смотреть Europe & Russia & Caucasus region weather report warning 26-31 January & 1-6 February 2026

Strategic Meteorological Assessment and Geopolitical Risk Analysis: The Eurasian Winter Divergence (Jan 26 – Feb 6, 2026)
The synoptic architecture of the Northern Hemisphere throughout the window of January 26 to February 6, 2026, represents a seminal moment in contemporary climatology, characterized by a structural failure in hemispheric circulation known in research circles as the Great Eurasian Weather Divergence. This atmospheric bifurcation is not merely a seasonal anomaly but a fundamental departure from historical climate norms, triggered by a massive Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that caused the catastrophic collapse and subsequent splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex into multiple distinct cores. The operational period of late January and early February serves as the peak expression of this rift, where two intensely competing weather regimes dominate the Eurasian landmass: a high-energy maritime storm system transitioning into a stabilizing anticyclonic block over Western Europe, and a persistent, severe Siberian-Arctic continental system affecting Eastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and the Caucasus region.
The Atmospheric Engine: Climate Change and Stratospheric Forcing
The primary catalyst for the hazardous conditions observed in the late January 2026 period is an unusually early and powerful disruption of the polar vortex. Typically, the polar vortex acts as a "keeper" of cold, locking frigid air into the Arctic regions when its winds are strong and circulation is stable. However, when the stratosphere undergoes a sudden warming—where temperatures can rise by more than 50\text{°C} in just a few days—the structural integrity of the vortex is compromised. High-resolution model data from late January 2026 reveals a complete breakdown of this polar circulation, releasing an "Arctic floodgate" of freezing air into the mid-latitudes of Europe and North America.
Arctic Amplification and Jet Stream Destabilization
The persistent instability of the 2025/2026 winter is rooted in the "climate paradox" of Arctic amplification. The Arctic is warming at a rate roughly four times faster than the global average, which significantly reduces the temperature gradient between the North Pole and the equator. This gradient is the fundamental "engine" that drives the jet stream. As the temperature difference shrinks, the jet stream loses its velocity and structural linearity, moving from a fast, west-to-east "river" of air into a series of deep, meandering loops, or a "looping S shape".
This meandering jet stream is the physical "fingerprint" of a warming planet. These deep loops allow cold Arctic air to plunge as far south as the Mediterranean and North Africa, while simultaneously pulling unseasonably warm Saharan air into Eastern Europe. The result is a state of "reliable instability," where historical averages become poor predictors of daily weather, and regions must prepare for temperature swings of up to 30\text{°C} within a 72-hour window.
The Clausius-Clapeyron Relation and Latent Heat
A secondary but equally critical driver of the severe weather in 2026 is the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. This physical principle dictates that for every 1\text{°C} of atmospheric warming, the air's capacity to hold moisture increases by approximately 7%. In the context of the 2026 winter, the exceptionally warm North Atlantic and Mediterranean waters—trending 0.5\text{°C} to 3.0\text{°C} above normal—provide a massive reservoir of moisture and energy.
When the frigid Arctic air discharged by the collapsed polar vortex encounters this moisture-laden maritime air, the resulting "clash of the masses" triggers explosive cyclogenesis. The moisture acts as "latent heat" fuel; as it condenses into rain or snow, it releases energy back into the storm system, making events like the "Balkan snow bombs" and Mediterranean cyclones significantly more powerful than those recorded in the 20th century.