#TFD

In this video, we dive deep into the math behind drop rates in games, especially as it impacts The First Descendant.
We talk about how our perception tends to be skewed by how we usually interact mostly with normal distributions on our daily lives. We show how chance is usually represented by geometric distributions and how they differ from the more familiar normal distributions.

We break down complex concepts like the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) and Probability Mass Function (PMF) in simple terms, using examples like rolling a 4-sided die. Understanding these concepts will help you set better expectations for your in-game experiences, especially when dealing with low drop rates.

Key Topics Covered:
Introduction to geometric distributions and their characteristics
Demonstration using a 4-sided die and understanding failure chances
Explanation of CCDF and PMF, and how to calculate the probability of success on a given attempt
Insights into why drop rates might feel "rigged" and the right-skewed nature of geometric distributions
A detailed look at the impact of low drop chances, such as a 6% success rate
Tools & Resources:

Lukium's Drop Rate Predictor:
GeoGebra: https://lukium.com/drop-chances
Excel: https://lukium.com/drop-chances2

Detailed explanations and math used in the video available in the Excel tool

Community & Next Steps:
We also discuss the ongoing community concerns with drop rates in The First Descendant and suggest constructive ways to address them, including advocating for a "pity" system to mitigate the frustration of long streaks of bad luck. Special shoutout to Ryechews Games for their excellent content on The First Descendant.

Call to Action:
If you found this video helpful, please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing for more content. Join our Discord and Twitch Stream for more discussions and live interactions! Let's work together to better understand game mechanics and enjoy our gaming experiences more!

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
1:38 - Concepts: Normal Distributions and Averages
3:00 - Is this how The First Descendant works?
3:49 - Math & Demonstration (Watch this if you really want to understand)
7:33 - Geometric Distribution Graphs (Visual explanation of the Math)
8:05 - Start here if you don't want all the Math
9:15 - Main Point
10:35 - Lukium's Drop Chance Predictor
12:35 - Community Suggestions & Shoutouts
14:50 - Outro

Links:

Discord:   / discord  
Twitch:   / lukium  
Ryechews Games on YouTube:    / @ryechew  
Check out their channel