Скачать или смотреть Don't delay! Small bumps in the corn price might be all the opportunity farmers get

Southern rust and late-season dryness are adding some uncertainty to U.S. corn yield potential, shifting fund positioning heading into harvest. However, the estimated scale and size of the crop (i.e. huge!), is weighing heavily on prices, and demand uncertainty makes it worse, says Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge.

Seifried returned Friday from the ProFarmer Crop Tour, and says his initial yield expectations have come down as disease pressure spreads rapidly. “This was more (southern rust) than I’ve ever seen in my 11 years of being out on tour,” he says, noting that southern rust has advanced faster and farther than expected.

The uncertainty has prompted funds to reduce their short positions somewhat. “They just know that there’s a problem. We’re not sure what this means. Let’s get out of some of these short positions. And that’s really been the feature here… creating a pricing opportunity for producers,” Seifried says.

While he sees the current bounce as a chance for marketing, Seifried remains cautious. He believes harvest pressure will return, especially if yields hold closer to USDA’s early estimates than the lower ProFarmer figure. “I still think this is a really big crop, especially for corn, and… there’s still a lot of bushels that are going to need to get sold during harvest,” he says.

Looking ahead, Seifried highlights that without a major demand driver, such as an expanded ethanol mandate or a significant China purchase, the market may struggle to sustain long-term strength. For soybeans, he cautions the prolonged absence of Chinese buying is concerning: “There’s not enough soybean demand in the world from other countries not named China to offset China… we just can’t make up for all of that, not even really close,” he says.


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