Скачать или смотреть John Mearsheimer: Why Cold War 2.0 is a Fight We Are Already Losing

The New Cold War & The "Multi-Polar" Reality Mearsheimer argues we are firmly in a new Cold War with three great powers: the US, China, and Russia.

The Triangle: The US is in an intense security competition (Cold War) with both China and Russia.

The Trump Factor (2026): In this timeline, Trump is President and attempting to "flip" Russia to ally with the US against China. However, Mearsheimer notes this has failed because the US (and Europe) are still locked into the Ukraine conflict, pushing Russia deeper into China's arms.

Europe vs. US Interests: A key divergence is highlighted: The US structurally needs to pivot to Asia to face its true peer competitor (China), while Europe is obsessed with Russia, which Mearsheimer argues is "not a serious threat" to dominate Europe.

2. NATO’s Defeat & The "Rump State" of Ukraine The conversation paints a grim picture of Ukraine in 2026.

The "Giant Kabuki Dance": Mearsheimer dismisses current peace negotiations as theater. The positions are "light years apart":

Russia's Demands: No NATO, limited army (85k troops), and keeping all 4 annexed oblasts.

West's Demands: Security guarantees (de facto NATO), regaining territory, and a large army (600k-800k).

The Endgame: Mearsheimer predicts Ukraine will lose on the battlefield in 2026. It will become a "dysfunctional rump state," an "economic basket case," and face a "demographic death spiral" (referencing a WSJ article about drafting 18-year-olds).

Odessa is the Key: Both Diesen and Mearsheimer agree Russia will likely take Odessa to landlock Ukraine, stripping it of its geopolitical value to NATO.

3. The Nuclear Escalation Risk Mearsheimer warns that if the West successfully stalls a Russian victory in 2026, the risk of nuclear use skyrockets.

Existential Threat: He emphasizes that for Russia, this is existential. If they feel they cannot win conventionally or are bleeding too much, they will use nuclear weapons rather than lose.

Sergey Karaganov: He cites Russian strategist Karaganov’s arguments for using nuclear weapons to "sober up" the West, noting that while Putin has resisted this pressure so far, a prolonged stalemate could change that calculus.

4. The "Blame Game" & Zelensky’s Tragedy The interview concludes with a retrospective on Zelensky.

The Fatal Mistake: Mearsheimer argues Zelensky's decision to walk away from the Istanbul negotiations in 2022 (under Western pressure) was the moment he destroyed his country.

The Historical Verdict: Future historians will view Zelensky as the man who, seduced by Western promises of a "long war" to weaken Russia, presided over the total destruction of his nation.
#JohnMearsheimer #GlennDiesen #UkraineWar2026 #ColdWar2 #NATO #Geopolitics #NuclearWar #Odessa #TrumpForeignPolicy #Zelensky