Скачать или смотреть Russia Will Disrupt U.S. Iran War Strategy /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Matt Hoh

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The discussion argues that the U.S.–Iran war quickly expanded beyond what Washington expected, turning from a limited U.S.–Israel conflict into a broader regional confrontation involving multiple actors and potential indirect support from major powers.

Key points:

War expanded rapidly: The U.S. reportedly expected a contained conflict with Iran, but Iran quickly spread the fighting across the region, involving allies and attacks on multiple states using drones and missiles.

Russia’s role:

Russia is unlikely to fight the U.S. directly because it is focused on the war in Ukraine.

However, Russia may support Iran through intelligence sharing, military advice, and technology, especially lessons learned from the Ukraine war.

This includes improvements to Shahed drones, electronic warfare techniques, and methods to disrupt U.S. weapons like GPS-guided JDAM bombs.

Military knowledge transfer: Russian experience countering Western weapons may help Iran jam GPS guidance, evade air defenses, and improve drone effectiveness, though integrating this knowledge into Iran’s military takes time.

U.S. technology concerns: The U.S. has historically limited the most advanced weapons given to Ukraine (e.g., modified Abrams tanks) to prevent Russia—and potentially Iran or China—from studying American technology.

Air defense concerns: Recent missile strikes hitting targets in the Gulf with little visible interception raise questions about the effectiveness or availability of U.S. and allied air defenses.

Strategic benefit for Russia and China:

A prolonged Middle East war could benefit Russia, since U.S. weapons and resources used there cannot be sent to Ukraine.

China has long viewed U.S. entanglement in Middle Eastern wars as strategically advantageous because it drains American military and political resources.

Overall:
The conversation suggests the conflict may evolve into a wider geopolitical struggle, where Russia and China indirectly support Iran while benefiting from the U.S. being drawn into another prolonged Middle East war.