Скачать или смотреть No Amount of Bombs Will Destroy Iran /Prof Omer Bartov & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Professor Omer Bartov argues that the U.S. cannot realistically defeat or conquer Iran, a nation of about 90 million people, and that bombing or invading it would not achieve a decisive outcome. They suggest the U.S. government lacks a clear objective in the conflict and may have entered the war partly for domestic political reasons. A collapse of Iran’s ruling Ayatollah regime is considered possible but unlikely in the near term, especially since there is no clear replacement leadership.

They warn that if Iran’s new leadership abandons previous restrictions against nuclear weapons, the conflict could push Iran to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent, reinforcing the idea that smaller countries need nukes to prevent attacks by major powers.

On Israel, the speaker argues that Israeli leadership may aim to prolong the conflict to gain political advantage in upcoming elections. Israeli society has become accustomed to living under ongoing security threats, though public opinion could shift if missile strikes cause significant casualties.

The conflict may turn into a prolonged missile exchange, with neither side running out of weapons quickly. The speaker believes U.S. policy is the key factor shaping Israeli decisions—if the United States withdraws support or pressures Israel to stop the war and negotiate, it could quickly change Israeli policy and potentially lead to political change within Israel.