What is Gagauzia? | The Geopolitics of Gagauzia

Situated in the South of Moldova is the autonomous region of Gagauzia, populated by an ethnically Turkic group - the Gagauz. The Gagauz, enticed to their current home by the Russian Empire from Bulgaria during the 1800s, are an orthodox Christian Turkic group with strong Russian influence.

Since its reintegration into Moldova, Gagauzia has become a leverage point for Russia in its effort to keep Moldova away from the European Union, NATO and Romania, with the threat of Gagauz separatism being a thorn in the side for Chisinau, though a small one.

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By GeoVane, formerly AR Global Security and Base Rate (Global Guessing, and Crowd Money).

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In 2014, in light of events in Ukraine, the region held two referenda, voting overwhelmingly in favour of joining the Russian led Eurasian Customs Union instead of the European Union, and in also in favour of a “deferred independence” bill proposed in Gagauzia’s legislative body, that would allow the region to become independent were Moldova to “lose its national sovereignty”, the main example of this loss of national sovereignty being Moldovan unification into Romania. Fundamentally, ties between Gagauzia and Moscow are strong and give Russia influence in Moldova.

However, with the collapse of the USSR and the changing geopolitical dynamic in the 21st century, it isn’t just Russia that has an interest in this small enclave of Turkic speakers. Turkey, with its increased emphasis on pan Turkism, has also taken an interest too. Turkey has funded and helped build education centres, retirement homes and sports facilities in Gagauzia, and Turkish investment in the autonomous region has risen by 60 per cent since 2016. Though Turkish efforts remain mainly in the economic sphere, the recent outreach from the state hasn’t gone unnoticed by Moscow - giving the region increased importance in the geopolitical competition between Russia and Turkey, and garnering Turkey leverage in Moldova too. Though the chances of conflict are low for now and are likely to remain low, with all of the outside interest in the region, Gagauzia makes for an interesting potential flashpoint for the future.