The Naval War in Ukraine - The Moskva, Missiles & Lessons

The Russian Black Sea Fleet entered the Ukrainian war as the unchallenged master of that body of water. Ukraine's own fleet was small and less modern, and the opening weeks of the war were dominated by news of the Russian fleet launching missile attacks and threatening naval landings that pinned down Ukrainian forces in Odessa.

But when the Moskva sank, the pattern of naval activity changed dramatically. Now, the Russian fleet stays mostly away from the Ukrainian cost, nervous of missile, drone, and air threats posed by an opponent whose own navy is mostly neutralised.

In this episode I look at the evolving war in the Black Sea, the evolution and role of the Russian navy there, the sinking of the Moskva - and what if any lessons foreign observers might be taking from the war at sea so far.

Patreon:
  / perunau  

Caveats:
The sinking of the Moskva, for all that we have learned, ultimately remains a mystery. I have not interviewed any of her crew, and I am not an expert in the field. I have tried to explain why I adopt conclusions on some matters and decline to make any on others - but even the conclusions made are only at a moderate confidence level.

There could have been more missiles, there could just have been some horrible freak accident involved. The comments therein are thus ultimately the best I can make using the evidence available - but as with so many other things in this war, I expect future evidence will reveal twists we do not now anticipate.

I'd also note there are a few typos that snuck through on the slides - forgive these please.

I'd also like to flag that the use of ground based systems at sea is not an unknow - though it is usually intended as an expedient. In some cases the ships involved may also merely have been transporting the systems, though that does not seem to have been the case in all instances.

Russian naval operations are obviously secret and knowledge presented therein is based on open source information - it is, for example, possible that Russia launches secret incursions against the Ukrainian coast, but the situation described is based on the best available information I have access to.

Finally - yes i know it's a stretch giving the Canadians credit for the Brits torching the White House , but the joke was there

Sources/notable articles:

Russian fleet strengths - composite but primarily Military balance 2021

US accelerating deployment of laser weapons for navy ships
https://news.usni.org/2022/07/26/cno-...

Weapon supply data drawn from open source aggregators - including Oryx and official sources, E.G for Germany
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-e...

Russian navy and PLAN recognition Guides
https://www.oni.navy.mil/Portals/12/I...

The Sinking of the Moskva by Christopher Carlson
http://www.admiraltytrilogy.com/pdf/H...

Russian claims on Moskva's sinking:
https://tass.com/russia/1438045

Turkey closing the straits:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:15 — What Am I Covering?
00:02:07 — Evolution of the Russian Navy
00:03:00 — Land and Sea Powers
00:04:14 — The Rises and Falls of Russian Naval Power
00:06:07 — Gorshkov's Navy
00:07:16 — The "Soviet Style” of Ship
00:10:00 — The Cost of Firepower
00:11:22 — The 90's
00:12:53 — Putin, Modernisation, Syria & "Kalibrisation"
00:14:45 — Pre-War Strength
00:15:46 — Russian Federation Navy Recognition and Identification Guide
00:16:13 — The Early Stages of the War
00:16:22 — Russian Fleet Strength
00:18:31 — The Opening Salvos
00:20:27 — End of the Ukrainian Navy
00:22:22 — From Snake Island to Odessa
00:24:32 — The Moskva Moment: A Moment That Captured Global Attention
00:26:53 — The Soviet Rustbuckets
00:28:36 — How Did It Happen?
00:30:33 — Moskva Under The Microscope
00:32:51 — State of the Ship
00:35:01 — Incompetence or Arrogance?
00:37:16 — What Did It Mean?
00:38:07 — What Happened?
00:40:19 — Emerging Threats
00:40:39 — The Missile Threat
00:43:27 — Drones and Air Threats
00:44:54 — Networked Intelligence
00:46:24 — What Next?
00:47:10 — Unmanned Systems Introduced
00:49:21 — The Crimean Dimension
00:50:15 — Force Regeneration
00:52:13 — Lessons & Observations
00:53:56 — Paper vs Actual Capabilities
00:55:36 — Soft Factors
01:01:19 — Nowhere to Hide
01:02:27 — Conclusions
01:04:01 — Channel Update