Choosing Victoria’s future: 5 urban development scenarios

Infrastructure Victoria modelled 5 different, possible urban development futures for Victoria’s capital city and our largest regional cities over 30 years. We wanted to explore the impact of different city shapes on where people choose to live and work, the jobs and services they can access, how much land is used for housing, travel patterns, the impact on our environment and other outcomes.

Our research finds each scenario has advantages and disadvantages. But overall, the results tell us that more compact cities perform better on many indicators including:
• More compact cities offer businesses better opportunities to hire great staff and connect with customers and markets. Victorians would be up to $43 billion better off by 2056 with more compact cities compared to growth being dispersed across the state.

• More compact cities also mean more land for agriculture and wildlife habitat. A sprawling, dispersed city consumes an extra 30,000 hectares of land compared to a compact city - equivalent to over 12,000 times the field size of the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

• People living in dispersed cities would spend up to 70% more time in congested traffic to get to jobs and services.

• Infrastructure in a dispersed city costs the government about $41 billion more by 2056, or $59,000 extra for every new home built, compared to a compact city.

• Over 25% more people would use public transport in a more compact city than in a dispersed city.

The future shape of Melbourne and our regional cities will have big impacts for our quality of life, the economy, and the environment as Victoria grows.

Find out more at www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au