Government and society after AGI | Carl Shulman (Part 2)

Part 1:    • The economy and national security aft...  

If we develop artificial general intelligence that's reasonably aligned with human goals, it could put a fast and near-free superhuman advisor in everyone's pocket. How would that affect culture, government, and our ability to act sensibly and coordinate together?

It's common to worry that AI advances will lead to a proliferation of misinformation and further disconnect us from reality. But in today's conversation, AI expert Carl Shulman argues that this underrates the powerful positive applications the technology could have in the public sphere.

Learn more and find the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episod...

To illustrate the possible impact, Carl imagines how the COVID pandemic could have played out in the presence of AI advisors that everyone agrees are exceedingly insightful and reliable. But in practice, a significantly superhuman AI might suggest novel approaches better than any we can suggest. In the past we've usually found it easier to predict how hard technologies like planes or factories will change than to imagine the social shifts that those technologies will create — and the same is likely happening for AI.

In today’s episode, Carl Shulman and host Rob Wiblin discuss the above plus lots more.

Chapters:
• Cold open (00:00:00)
• Rob’s intro (00:01:16)
• The interview begins (00:03:24)
• COVID-19 concrete example (00:11:18)
• Sceptical arguments against the effect of AI advisors (00:24:16)
• Value lock-in (00:33:59)
• How democracies avoid coups (00:48:08)
• Where AI could most easily help (01:00:25)
• AI forecasting (01:04:30)
• Application to the most challenging topics (01:24:03)
• How to make it happen (01:37:50)
• International negotiations and coordination and auditing (01:43:54)
• Opportunities for listeners (02:00:09)
• Why Carl doesn't support enforced pauses on AI research (02:03:58)
• How Carl is feeling about the future (02:15:47)
• Rob’s outro (02:17:37)

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The 80,000 Hours Podcast features unusually in-depth conversations about the world’s most pressing problems and what you can do to solve them.